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Daily Market Brief - Jan 29, 2026
Jan 29, 2026
Investment, Stocks, Daily Market Themes
Editor's Notes:
Liquidity surge in Hong Kong was noticeable. This tends to lift up the big names in HSI. Good to see some consumer names in the up list (Mengniu, Tingyi). We are waiting to see if any real sense of China cyclical recovery.
"Most risk-on since 2021" in the US naturally goes "high volatility expected". Embrace wild moves (e.g. the -6% after market for MSFT after earnings) this year if you want to bet on any AI / tech names in the US.
Global markets present a significant paradox: the S&P 500 is reaching all-time highs while the US Dollar weakens, signaling a potential "low real-yield phase" benefiting tech and precious metals. Institutional sentiment, notably described by Goldman Sachs as "most risk-on since 2021," contrasts with dwindling liquidity, evidenced by the Fed's Reverse Repo facility near exhaustion. Key regional themes include a defensive rotation in US sectors despite AI hype, Japan's pivot to "deep value" amid fiscal stimulus, and a liquidity-driven rally in Hong Kong.
Overall Themes, Market Sentiment & Debates
Global Macro: The "USD Crash" vs. Equity ATH Paradox
The market is wrestling with a fundamental contradiction: the S&P 500 is hitting new highs while the US Dollar (USD) is in a perceived "free fall," with the EUR/USD pair nearing 1.21. Institutional sentiment, as reported by Goldman Sachs, is currently the "most risk-on since 2021." However, underlying liquidity indicators are flashing warning signs. The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility, a key gauge of market liquidity, has dramatically dwindled from $2.5 trillion to nearly $1 billion, suggesting the substantial liquidity cushion that fueled the 2024–2025 market rally is almost entirely exhausted. Analysts are actively debating whether these conditions indicate a "low real-yield phase," where assets such as Gold and Silver rally alongside technology stocks, or if the simultaneous Japanese bond sell-off could signal a structural unwind of the "yen carry trade," potentially triggering a broader global market reset.
US: A "Broader Reset" Masked by AI Hype
While technology stocks continue to show substantial gains, with S&P 500 tech components up significantly year-to-date, a defensive rotation is subtly emerging. This is evidenced by Consumer Staples (XLP) beginning to outperform Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Simultaneously, massive corporate "resets" are underway across various sectors, with major companies like Amazon (cutting 16,000 roles) and UPS (eliminating 30,000 roles) undertaking significant staff reductions to protect profit margins. The central debate for investors is whether corporate earnings can continue to outpace the record-high margin debt and a complacent put/call ratio of 0.54, a level that has historically preceded spikes in market volatility.
Japan: Fiscal Stimulus vs. Yield Volatility
The Nikkei 225 stock index remains near multi-decade highs, reaching 53,300 points, largely fueled by aggressive fiscal stimulus measures and a strategic focus on "next-generation" semiconductors and green innovation. Despite this positive momentum, rising bond yields, intrinsically linked to increased government spending and the upcoming February 8 election, are creating sector-specific volatility. Analysts are increasingly identifying "deep value" plays—companies trading below 1x book value with substantial cash reserves—as the next significant investment opportunity, shifting focus away from purely export-sensitive names.
Hong Kong: 4.5-Year Highs on Record Turnover
The Hang Seng Index’s rally to 27,826, marking a 2.58% increase, was decisively validated by unprecedented market turnover of HK$361 billion. This surge is primarily a liquidity-driven move, catalyzed by the weakening US Dollar and positive export data emanating from China. Leading the charge were technology giants like Tencent and Alibaba, alongside major financial institutions such as HSBC. However, the property sector remains bifurcated: developers like China Vanke are securing critical financial lifelines (e.g., a 2.36 billion yuan loan), while distressed entities such as Evergrande continue to exert downward pressure on the market.
Notable Stock Moves, Earnings and Development
Symbol | Company | Price Move | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
STX | Seagate Technology | +19.14% | Reported Q4 revenue beat of 21.5% and significant earnings surprise. |
LRN | Stride, Inc. | +14.25% | Beat Q2 revenue/EPS estimates, announced $500M buyback, and raised long-term profitability targets. |
NXT | Nextpower Inc. | +13.28% | Strong Q3 earnings beat and raised FY26 outlook; received analyst upgrades from Wells Fargo and Needham. |
INTC | Intel Corporation | +11.04% | Increased tool spending for data storage expansion and positive sentiment for AI infrastructure chipmakers. |
WDC | Western Digital | +10.70% | Significant earnings beat driven by surging AI-related demand and immense pricing power in storage. |
TXN | Texas Instruments | +9.94% | Strong Q1 2026 guidance signaling recovery in demand for industrial and data center analog chips. |
9697.T | Capcom Co., Ltd. | +9.82% | Reaffirmed positive FY2026 guidance and announced upcoming release of Resident Evil franchise title. |
5803.T | Fujikura Ltd. | +9.41% | |
ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | +8.88% | |
BE | Bloom Energy | +8.59% | Strong Q4 results and major fuel cell deals for AI data centers with AEP and Brookfield. |
6723.T | Renesas Electronics | +8.33% | Announced strategic joint venture for India OSAT facility and positive global analog semiconductor outlook. |
FFIV | F5, Inc. | +8.09% | Reported strong Q1 results and raised FY26 guidance due to enterprise AI and cloud adoption. |
RMBS | Rambus Inc. | +7.54% | Positive sentiment following a 57% increase in stake by a major institutional investor. |
MCHP | Microchip Tech | +6.81% | Upward revision of earnings estimates and expansion of automotive touchscreen controller product line. |
0728.HK | China Telecom | +6.67% | Launched 5G-A smart mine initiative and benefited from positive data center market outlook. |
SMR | NuScale Power | +6.67% | Benefited from positive growth projections for AI applications in the nuclear energy sector. |
9992.HK | Pop Mart | +6.47% | Successful US market expansion and continued global popularity of core characters and IP collaborations. |
1347.HK | Hua Hong Semi | +6.43% | |
7735.T | SCREEN Holdings | +6.36% | |
6920.T | Lasertec Corp | +6.29% | Technology sector rally driven by AI expectations, yen weakness, and demand for EUV lithography equipment. |
1093.HK | CSPC Pharma | +6.24% | |
FSLR | First Solar, Inc. | +6.11% | |
LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | +6.10% | Q4 earnings beat and strong Q1 2026 guidance reflecting improved industrial semiconductor demand. |
MU | Micron Technology | +6.10% | Beat Q4 revenue estimates and announced $31B investment in advanced packaging and fabrication facilities. |
MPWR | Monolithic Power | +6.05% | Multiple analyst price target increases and positive outlook for data center power efficiency solutions. |
ARW | Arrow Electronics | +6.04% | Surpassed revenue targets with strong EPS growth and recognized for excellent board governance. |
0390.HK | China Railway | +6.03% | |
ELV | Elevance Health | +5.86% | Reported FY2025 results and issued strong FY2026 guidance with confidence in 12% growth. |
WIX | Wix.com Ltd. | +5.78% | Launched new AI website builder and reported strong user growth for acquired AI apps. |
3808.HK | Sinotruk | +5.73% | |
1308.HK | SITC International | +5.71% | Issued positive FY2025 guidance projecting 16-19% profit growth and increased freight volumes. |
MSCI | MSCI Inc. | +5.69% | Q4 EPS beat, announced dividend increase, and launched new private capital analytics solutions. |
0762.HK | China Unicom | +5.58% | Appointment of new Chairman and CEO signaling leadership and execution alignment. |
1618.HK | Metallurgical Corp | +5.41% | Proposed major share buyback plan and benefited from rising global gold prices and HK market strength. |
TER | Teradyne, Inc. | +4.83% | |
TSEM | Tower Semi | +4.76% | |
5802.T | Sumitomo Electric | +4.70% | Announced new management plan and expanded production for EV wiring harnesses in India. |
5726.T | OSAKA Titanium | +4.67% | |
3092.T | ZOZO, Inc. | +4.66% | |
T | AT&T Inc. | +4.65% | Met/exceeded 2025 guidance and provided strong 2026-2028 growth outlook for fiber and 5G. |
NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | +4.62% | Completed acquisition of TTTech Auto and benefited from positive automotive inventory normalization trends. |
ADI | Analog Devices | +4.54% | Positive analog sector sentiment following recovery forecast from industry leader Texas Instruments. |
3898.HK | Zhuzhou CRRC | +4.54% | Strong industry outlook for busbars driven by demand from EVs and renewable energy. |
2015.HK | Li Auto Inc. | +4.49% | Announced humanoid robot initiative and R&D restructuring to focus on embodied intelligence and AI. |
GKOS | Glaukos Corp | +4.41% | Received FDA approval for re-administration of iDose TR; analysts raised price targets. |
RBLX | Roblox Corporation | +4.34% | Goldman Sachs upgrade to Buy and increased consensus EPS estimates based on profit potential. |
9866.HK | NIO Inc. | +4.16% | Reiterated delivery growth guidance and launched smart driving tech updates and new mass-market brand models. |
UNH | UnitedHealth Group | +4.00% | |
1024.HK | Kuaishou Tech | +3.99% | Strong monetization and adoption KPIs for Kling, its proprietary AI video generator. |
8035.T | Tokyo Electron | +3.96% | Positive growth projections for the Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) semiconductor equipment market. |
CIEN | Ciena Corporation | +3.95% | Strong growth projections for AI data center networking and application-centric infrastructure markets. |
1698.HK | Tencent Music | +3.94% | |
LITE | Lumentum Holdings | +3.87% | Analyst upgrades and surging demand for laser chips and optical transceivers from AI hyperscalers. |
0916.HK | China Longyuan | +3.72% | Completed issuance of RMB 2.0 billion ultra-short-term financing bonds at a low coupon rate. |
HALO | Halozyme Therapeutics | +3.72% | Q3 revenue beat and positive full-year EBITDA guidance exceeding analyst expectations. |
1211.HK | BYD Company | +3.70% | Significant European expansion with sales growth and new partnerships in battery and energy storage. |
ON | ON Semiconductor | +3.67% | Beat Q4 EPS/revenue estimates and benefited from positive discrete semiconductor market growth forecasts. |
1766.HK | CRRC Corp Ltd | +3.65% | Innovation in EV drive systems and 30-year rail leasing partnership announced with Malaysia. |
9984.T | SoftBank Group | +3.58% | Strategic shift to DigitalBridge for AI infrastructure and significant investment in OpenAI. |
9626.HK | Bilibili Inc. | +3.53% | Aligned with broader sector uplift and positive sentiment for Chinese concept technology stocks. |
6160.HK | BeOne Medicines | +3.47% | Secured rights for HER2 oncology antibody and completed Phase 1 study for blood cancer drug. |
0981.HK | SMIC | +3.38% | Advanced domestic AI chip innovation and strategic acquisition of full stake in Northern unit. |
COHR | Coherent Corp. | +3.34% | Positive AI data center networking and semiconductor refurbishment market projections. |
2076.HK | Kanzhun Limited | +3.26% | |
MTSI | MACOM Tech | +3.22% | Analysts raised price targets based on market shift toward GaN/GaAs and data center throughput needs. |
AUR | Aurora Innovation | +3.21% | Bullish industry outlook for AI in self-driving cars projecting rapid CAGR through 2030. |
1209.HK | China Resources Mixc | +3.21% | |
2319.HK | China Mengniu Dairy | +3.19% | Analyst upgrade citing expectations of cyclical earnings recovery and stabilizing raw milk prices. |
285A.T | Kioxia Holdings | +3.07% | Launched high-performance QLC UFS 4.1 flash memory for AI-enabled mobile devices. |
0941.HK | China Mobile | +3.06% | |
0322.HK | Tingyi Holding | +3.04% | |
3064.T | MonotaRO Co. | -3.03% | |
RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | -3.04% | Multiple analyst downgrades to Neutral and Sell from major investment banks. |
WHR | Whirlpool Corp | -3.11% | Anticipated 66% decline in Q4 EPS and bearish sentiment reflected in increased short interest. |
2801.T | Kikkoman Corp | -3.17% | |
1364.HK | Guming Holdings | -3.17% | |
KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | -3.19% | Facing regulatory investigations over deceptive recycling claims and significant institutional selling. |
LULU | Lululemon | -3.24% | Weak traffic in the Americas, margin pressure from tariffs, and CEO transition uncertainty. |
UPS | United Parcel Service | -3.26% | Announced 30,000 job cuts and significant volume reduction for loss-making Amazon business. |
TEM | Tempus AI, Inc. | -3.35% | Weak short and long-term price trends and multiple research firm Hold ratings. |
HIMS | Hims & Hers Health | -3.40% | Analyst downgrade and valuation concerns regarding high P/E ratio compared to healthcare peers. |
GRAB | Grab Holdings | -3.41% | Major institutional sale by Teacher Retirement System of Texas totaling over 570,000 shares. |
GFS | GlobalFoundries | -3.42% | |
XYL | Xylem Inc. | -3.48% | Price target reduction by Barclays and projected reduction in dividend payout ratio. |
5034 | Cellebrite DI | -3.50% | |
4632 | Floor & Decor | -3.51% | Analyst Hold rating and market caution regarding aggressive capital expenditure for store expansion. |
6954.T | Fanuc Corporation | -3.56% | Lowered operating income guidance suggesting margin pressures despite higher sales volume. |
4853 | Roku, Inc. | -3.58% | |
0325.HK | Bloks Group | -3.59% | |
PINS | Pinterest, Inc. | -3.63% | Announced 700 job cuts (15% of workforce) to reallocate resources toward AI development. |
2503.T | Kirin Holdings | -3.66% | New beer business strategy in response to unified tax rates impacting core segment profitability. |
LEVI | Levi Strauss & Co. | -3.67% | Warned of higher tariff impacts on margins and a softer consumer demand environment. |
4568.T | Daiichi Sankyo | -3.68% | Uncertainty regarding financial terms of a new weight-loss tablet deal; "sell the news" event. |
OLLI | Ollie's Bargain | -3.76% | Significant divestment by a major institutional investor reducing confidence. |
PDD | PDD Holdings | -3.84% | Escalating regulatory investigation into fraudulent deliveries and bearish technical chart indicators. |
CLX | Clorox Company | -3.88% | Large institutional divestment and anticipation of declining earnings and revenue in Q4. |
SRPT | Sarepta Therapeutics | -3.88% | Ongoing safety concerns and boxed warnings for Elevidys leading to shipment pauses and revenue declines. |
4151.T | Kyowa Kirin | -3.88% | |
TEL | TE Connectivity | -3.90% | Analyst downgrade to Hold and significant insider selling by the EVP. |
TECH | Bio-Techne Corp | -3.91% | Significant institutional stake reductions and reaffirmation of a Sell rating. |
FSS | Federal Signal | -3.92% | |
7201.T | Nissan Motor | -3.92% | |
0753.HK | Air China | -3.92% | Plunging demand for Japan travel following security concerns and earthquakes; extended refund policies. |
ATAT | Atour Lifestyle | -3.98% | |
MMYT | MakeMyTrip | -3.98% | Downgraded and removed from a major analyst portfolio; rising customer acquisition costs. |
BJ | BJ's Wholesale | -4.06% | Significant price target reduction and major institutional selling by Strs Ohio. |
3099.T | Isetan Mitsukoshi | -4.08% | |
INSM | Insmed Incorporated | -4.15% | CEO and COO sold shares alongside significant reductions in institutional ownership. |
CHH | Choice Hotels | -4.15% | Significant reduction in price target from $140 to $95 by Susquehanna. |
GH | Guardant Health | -4.24% | Significant insider selling by the CTO, reducing direct ownership by 43%. |
7936.T | ASICS Corporation | -4.28% | Supplier layoffs in Argentina and declining domestic consumption driving inventory liquidation. |
ARM | Arm Holdings | -4.28% | Credit pressure on parent SoftBank and volatility from AI-related financial maneuvers. |
KTOS | Kratos Defense | -4.57% | Share divestment by Ark Invest via the ARKQ ETF. |
SARO | StandardAero, Inc. | -4.62% | Large secondary public offering by major shareholders Carlyle and GIC; company received no proceeds. |
WH | Wyndham Hotels | -4.65% | Significant price target reduction by Goldman Sachs and insider selling. |
DHR | Danaher Corp | -4.76% | Revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter significantly missed analyst expectations. |
CSW | CSW Industrials | -4.80% | Reported revenue miss and history of failing to meet Wall Street sales estimates. |
BRBR | BellRing Brands | -4.95% | Multiple class action lawsuits alleging misrepresented sales growth and customer inventory stockpiling. |
PLTR | Palantir Tech | -5.04% | RBC downgrade citing valuation risks, high competition, and skepticism of enterprise customer durability. |
MANH | Manhattan Assoc | -5.06% | Forecasted revenue headwinds from customer liquidation and changes in US tax law. |
AVTR | Avantor, Inc. | -5.15% | FY2025 earnings guidance fell significantly below analyst consensus estimates. |
PCVX | Vaxcyte, Inc. | -5.48% | |
MBLY | Mobileye Global | -5.65% | Caution over significant end-market challenges and shrinking returns on capital. |
VFC | V.F. Corporation | -5.77% | Cautious guidance for flat revenue and mixed performance across core brands like Vans. |
NUVL | Nuvalent, Inc. | -5.81% | Insider selling by the CEO, totaling nearly $1 million. |
SYM | Symbotic Inc. | -6.59% | Public offering of 10 million shares causing dilution; significant insider sales by CTO. |
HUM | Humana Inc. | -6.69% | Medicare Advantage rates proposed to be roughly flat; significant drop in Star Ratings. |
QRVO | Qorvo, Inc. | -6.80% | Disappointing Q4 fiscal guidance due to seasonal decline at its largest customer and Android strategic exit. |
ASND | Ascendis Pharma | -6.85% | |
0670.HK | China Eastern | -6.94% | Extended free refund policy for Japan as demand plunges due to security risks and earthquakes. |
1055.HK | China Southern | -7.64% | Japan flight policy extension due to advice against travel; anticipated hit to international profitability. |
TXT | Textron Inc. | -7.90% | Issued lower-than-expected manufacturing cash flow guidance for 2026 due to accelerated CapEx. |
SWKS | Skyworks Solutions | -7.94% | Predicted 20-25% reduction in Apple shipments through 2026; included on analyst short list. |
AXON | Axon Enterprise | -9.89% | Significant insider selling by CEO and President; analyst downgrade from Hold to Sell. |
NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | -10.23% | Profit-taking after AI-driven rally and substantial insider selling by President. |
BMI | Badger Meter, Inc. | -11.00% | Q4 results missed revenue and EPS estimates; warned of temporary growth slowdown in 2026. |
2097.HK | MIXUE Group | -11.06% | UBS downgrade to Neutral citing margin pressure from raw materials and intense competition. |
APH | Amphenol Corp | -12.20% | Investor disappointment regarding perceived deceleration in organic sales growth and high AI valuation. |
CVNA | Carvana Co. | -14.17% | Heavy insider selling and analyst warnings regarding short-term volatility. |
AI Infrastructure Demand: A primary driver for gains in the semiconductor and networking sectors (STX, WDC, BE, MU, LITE, COHR). Companies enabling AI data centers are seeing record demand and pricing power, though high valuations are starting to face investor skepticism (APH, PLTR, NET).
Semiconductor Recovery: Positive guidance from analog chip leaders (TXN, ADI, MCHP) suggests a "stable upcycle" and a recovery in demand for industrial and automotive equipment.
Medicare Advantage Policy Shock: A major macro drag on the health insurance sector (HUM, ELV) following the administration's proposal to keep reimbursement rates flat, combined with declining "Star Ratings."
Geopolitical and Environmental Risks in East Asia: Airlines (Air China, China Eastern, China Southern) saw significant declines as demand for Japan-bound travel cratered due to security concerns and earthquake activity.
Tariff and Consumer Headwinds: Apparel and retail brands (LULU, LEVI, VFC) are warning of margin compression due to potential tariff changes and a "softer consumer environment."
Company-Specific Drivers
Earnings Surprise & Guidance: Strong beats and upward revisions drove massive gains for STX, LRN, and NXT, while misses or conservative guidance punished APH, BMI, and QRVO.
Insider Activity: Significant insider selling was a recurring theme for major losers (AXON, NET, CVNA, GH, INSM), often signaling a peak to investors.
Strategic Pivots: Notable gains followed companies expanding into AI or robotics (Li Auto, SoftBank, Wix). Conversely, UPS fell after announcing a pivot away from Amazon to cut costs.
Legal and Regulatory Pressure: BellRing Brands (BRBR) faced class action lawsuits over inventory reporting, while PDD and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) suffered from intensifying regulatory investigations.
Labor and Efficiency: Restructuring and job cuts (Pinterest, UPS) were met with negative reactions, highlighting concerns over growth versus efficiency.
Interesting Comments, Facts, and Ideas
The UnitedHealth (UNH) "Fallen Angel" Debate: Regulatory Reset or Deep Value?
UnitedHealth (UNH) currently serves as a critical Rorschach test for value investors, presenting two starkly contrasting interpretations. The bearish argument centers on structural challenges: the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is reportedly excluding specific diagnosis information, and the updated V28 model is removing critical diagnosis codes. Critics contend that this effectively closes the "Provider Tax" loophole, permanently capping margins and potentially valuing UNH as a "$200 stock" within an increasingly hostile political and regulatory environment. Conversely, bullish investors view the recent 20% dip as a "steal," asserting that the Optum + UnitedHealthcare vertical monopoly is too deeply integrated and essential to fail. They argue that the current regulatory headwinds are cyclical in nature, rather than terminal, suggesting a strong rebound is likely.
The "Winchester Secret Weapon" (Olin Corporation - OLN)
Olin Corporation (OLN) is being actively pitched as a unique macro hedge in the current market climate. While its chemical manufacturing segment experiences significant volatility, its Winchester ammunition division is benefiting from a structural shift in domestic security trends and securing long-term government contracts. This positions Winchester, and by extension Olin, as a rare industrial asset capable of providing a hedge against broader geopolitical instability.
The AI Energy Supercycle
The demand for power to fuel Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure has surged an astonishing eight-fold since 2023. This exponential growth is fundamentally transforming the traditional "tech trade" into a "commodities and machinery trade." Companies like Cameco (CCO), a leading uranium producer, and Olin (OLN), with its critical industrial chemicals, are increasingly being viewed as foundational architects of the burgeoning AI boom due to their essential material contributions. Concurrently, Verizon (VZ) is being strategically repositioned as a "Sleeping Giant of AI Infrastructure," actively retrofitting its central offices into edge data centers to leverage its extensive fiber network. This initiative offers a compelling narrative alongside its attractive 6.5% dividend yield.
Quantum Integration (IonQ - IONQ)
IonQ’s (IONQ) significant $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology marks a pivotal strategic shift towards vertical integration within the quantum computing industry. This move is designed to transition IonQ from a company primarily focused on "lab-scale" research and development into a comprehensive hardware-manufacturing player. By aiming to own the entire quantum stack, IonQ positions itself to capitalize as quantum computing advances from theoretical concepts toward widespread commercial production.
Happy Alpha Hunt! - Distilla
Disclaimer: This content is generated using AI, synthesizing public data (filings, reports, news) and social media (Reddit, X). It may contain errors, inaccuracies, or hallucinations. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice. This newsletter is for informational purposes only; please consult a qualified professional and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
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