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Daily Market Brief - Feb 04, 2026

Feb 4, 2026

Investment, Stocks, Daily Market Themes

Editor’s Notes

The AI trade is forcing a hard reset in software. What stands out today is how quickly the market has moved from “AI as upside” to “AI as a threat” for large swathes of SaaS. Usage-based pricing, collapsing multiples, and the sharp sell-off across CRM, ADBE, SNOW, NOW, and peers tell me investors are questioning whether yesterday’s subscription economics survive in an AI-native world. Capital is clearly rotating toward data-rich platforms and the physical layer of AI instead.
Infrastructure is quietly where conviction lives. Beneath the noise, the winners are the toll roads: storage, power, cooling, and grid-linked names. Western Digital’s buyback, nVent’s data center order growth, and deals like Bloom Energy’s Texas contracts suggest AI demand is running into real-world constraints. That’s where spending feels most durable right now.
Japan is delivering earnings, but not peace of mind. Record profits in semis and industrials sit alongside rising concern about fiscal sustainability, labor policy, and a long-dated tech roadmap. The weak yen is still a tailwind, but investors are increasingly balancing near-term earnings momentum against longer-term solvency and political risk.
Risk appetite hasn’t disappeared, it’s just fragmented. Hong Kong’s micro-cap bursts, sharp single-stock moves globally, and the continued hunt for tactical value plays tell me this is not a risk-off market. It’s a selective one. Investors are willing to take risk, but only where the story is clear, the balance sheet matters, or the downside feels defined.

The global market is experiencing significant shifts driven by AI, leading to a "SaaSmageddon" in the US, record earnings alongside structural solvency debates in Japan, and micro-cap speculation in Hong Kong. Key takeaways include a dramatic re-rating of major software companies as generative AI models disrupt established subscription moats, a strategic pivot of capital towards AI hardware, infrastructure, and data-moat platforms, and continued volatility in certain international markets.

Overall Themes, Market Sentiment & Debates

US Market: The "SaaSmageddon" and AI Regime Shift

The US market is currently undergoing a violent bifurcated rotation. On one side, a "SaaSmageddon" is re-rating major software incumbents like Salesforce, Adobe, and Snowflake. Investors fear that advanced generative AI models, specifically Google’s Project Genie, will disrupt their established subscription-based business models, shifting the narrative from "software eats the world" to "AI eats software."

This disruption is reflected in a pivot toward usage-based pricing as firms attempt to pass through surging GPU and infrastructure costs. Conversely, the "hardware and infrastructure trade" remains a dominant liquidity sink. With fund manager cash levels at record lows (3.2%), capital is rapidly fleeing "Cottage" solutions (point-solution SaaS like DocuSign) into "Castles" (data-moat heavy platforms such as Palantir) and the physical layer of the AI stack, including companies like Western Digital, Vertiv, and various energy providers.

Japan: Record Earnings vs. Structural Solvency Fears

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is navigating high-altitude turbulence. While semiconductor and industrial sectors, including Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Sumitomo Electric, are posting record profits, driven by strong AI demand and a weak Yen (USD/JPY at 156), macro-level anxiety is mounting.

Debates are intensifying over a potential $1.9 trillion solvency crisis and the policy direction of the upcoming election, where 40% of candidates are proposing foreign worker curbs. Japan's semiconductor strategy is also lengthening its horizon, with the Toyota/Sony-backed Rapidus targeting 2nm commercialization by 2031.

Hong Kong: Micro-Cap Speculation Amid Index Apathy

The Hong Kong market remains dominated by technical trading and micro-cap momentum, rather than fundamental conviction. While the Hang Seng Index navigates a narrow "decision band" around 26,642, explosive intraday moves are observed in low-float tech and consumer names like Sunking and HCHL.

There is also a visible rotation into "Golden Stocks" such as Air China and metals, serving as hedges against broader index volatility and regulatory pressures impacting the brokerage sector.

Notable Big Stock Moves, Earnings, and Development

Symbol	Company	Price Move	Key Driver
DVA	DaVita Inc.	+21.17%	Strong 2026 guidance; 33% EPS growth projection; strategic home care pivot.
WWD	Woodward, Inc.	+13.42%	Q1 earnings beat; raised full-year sales and EPS guidance.
TER	Teradyne, Inc.	+13.41%	Bullish guidance driven by AI-related semiconductor testing demand.
285A.T	KIOXIA HOLDINGS	+13.13%	Sector-wide memory demand strength.
5802.T	Sumitomo Electric	+12.55%	Establishing world's largest wiring harness facility; positive industry outlook.
6301.T	Komatsu Ltd.	+11.49%	Q3 earnings beat; EPS and revenue exceeded forecasts.
6762.T	TDK Corporation	+11.06%	Strong Q3; upward revision of guidance for ICT/sensors.
ASTS	AST SpaceMobile	+10.72%	Momentum in satellite-to-cellular space.
6971.T	Kyocera Corp	+10.66%	Massive profit surge; strategic business transformation project.
RKLB	Rocket Lab	+9.60%	Sector tailwinds from SpaceX-xAI merger news; successful Electron launch.
1157.HK	Zoomlion	+9.45%	Recovery in heavy machinery demand.
AES	The AES Corp	+9.23%	M&A rumors: Potential bids from Blackrock (GIP) and EQT.
BALL	Ball Corporation	+8.96%	Strong Q4; optimistic 2026 guidance; productivity savings.
6506.T	YASKAWA Electric	+8.64%	Industrial automation demand.
5803.T	Fujikura Ltd.	+8.61%	Connectivity/fiber tailwinds.
SMR	NuScale Power	+8.50%	Negotiations for major SMR sale to RoPower (Romania).
1093.HK	CSPC Pharmaceutical	+8.20%	Major licensing deal with AstraZeneca for obesity/diabetes injectables.
BE	Bloom Energy	+8.17%	Major Texas data center power deal; analyst upgrades.
2338.HK	Weichai Power	+7.80%	Data center power equipment demand; SOFC technology growth.
7735.T	SCREEN Holdings	+7.63%	Upgraded revenue forecasts post-Q3 results.
9022.T	Central Japan Railway	+7.56%	Q3 beat; upward revision of full-year forecast.
5726.T	OSAKA Titanium	+7.51%	Pre-earnings rally in non-ferrous metals.
KTOS	Kratos Defense	+7.50%	Positive drone market projections; price target hike.
WDC	Western Digital	+7.40%	$4B share repurchase authorization; strong Q2 beat.
6113.T	Amada Co., Ltd.	+7.25%	Strong machine tool performance.
6146.T	Disco Corporation	+7.14%	Semi-cap equipment demand.
0670.HK	China Eastern	+7.04%	Flight resumption (Shanghai-Delhi); AI data center expansion plans.
6857.T	Advantest Corp	+7.04%	Record Q3 profit; surging AI chip test demand.
WHR	Whirlpool Corp	+6.96%	Product innovation in ice/laundry segments.
PLTR	Palantir Tech	+6.85%	Q4 beat; 70% Y/Y commercial growth; 127 Rule of 40 score.
6981.T	Murata Mfg	+6.77%	Sales revision driven by AI server demand and Yen weakness.
6273.T	SMC Corporation	+6.68%	Pneumatic equipment demand strength.
8002.T	Marubeni Corp	+6.67%	Pharma acquisition; biomass power plant partnership.
OSK	Oshkosh Corp	+6.60%	BofA upgrade; strong vocational segment backlog.
6954.T	Fanuc Corporation	+6.40%	Robotics/CNC demand.
6361.T	Ebara Corporation	+6.39%	Positive wastewater aerator market projections.
6865.HK	Flat Glass Group	+6.29%	Solar infrastructure demand.
1803.T	Shimizu Corp	+6.26%	Construction sector resilience.
6723.T	Renesas Electronics	+6.11%	Automotive/Industrial chip demand.
9962.T	MISUMI Group	+5.94%	Raised full-year forecast and dividend.
5333.T	NGK Insulators	+5.77%	Grid-scale battery market growth.
IBP	Installed Building	+5.71%	Strategic acquisitions; earnings beat.
3808.HK	Sinotruk	+5.71%	Heavy truck exports/demand.
ITW	Illinois Tool Works	+5.56%	Strong Q4; optimistic 2026 organic growth.
1055.HK	China Southern	+5.53%	Travel recovery momentum.
FDX	FedEx Corporation	+5.41%	AI supply chain integration; network expansion (Japan/India/Turkey).
6368.T	Organo Corporation	+5.39%	Water treatment for semi-industry.
IR	Ingersoll Rand	+5.37%	Industrial demand strength.
GWW	W.W. Grainger	+5.37%	Strong 2026 guidance (EPS $42.25-$44.75).
9901.HK	New Oriental Ed	+5.14%	Maintained Buy ratings; institutional confidence.
6481.T	THK Co., Ltd.	+5.13%	Divestment of automotive units to improve ROE.
6504.T	Fuji Electric	+5.09%	Power electronics demand.
9984.T	SoftBank Group	+5.01%	Asset valuation recovery; xAI/SpaceX tailwinds.
2897.T	Nissin Foods	+4.94%	16.8% earnings growth projection; pricing power.
PEP	PepsiCo, Inc.	+4.93%	$10B buyback; dividend hike; revenue growth.
7741.T	HOYA Corporation	+4.86%	Growth in chip photomasks and contact lenses.
9532.T	Osaka Gas Co.	+4.84%	Strong Q3 profit on domestic pricing lags.
ALK	Alaska Air Group	+4.75%	Lower fuel costs (Crude -4%).
7012.T	Kawasaki Heavy	+4.74%	EV robot launch; positive traction motor outlook.
8035.T	Tokyo Electron	+4.74%	Semi-cap equipment leader momentum.
2208.HK	Goldwind Science	+4.71%	Wind energy equipment demand.
6302.T	Sumitomo Heavy	+4.70%	Market dominance in Japan truck-mounted cranes.
1801.T	Taisei Corporation	+4.69%	Biomass power partnership with Marubeni.
THO	THOR Industries	+4.63%	RV sector recovery expectations.
6326.T	Kubota Corporation	+4.61%	Expansion into precision agriculture.
7013.T	IHI Corporation	+4.60%	Aerospace-driven superalloys demand.
6841.T	Yokogawa Electric	+4.57%	Industrial automation sales growth.
UI	Ubiquiti Inc.	+4.46%	Direct attach cable market growth.
TDY	Teledyne Tech	+4.43%	Anti-submarine warfare tech success for NATO.
4507.T	Shionogi & Co.	+4.41%	Q1 beat; raised 2027 revenue estimates.
1802.T	Obayashi Corp	+4.41%	Construction project backlog.
6324.T	Harmonic Drive	+4.35%	Precision gear demand for robotics.
FBIN	Fortune Brands	+4.32%	Dividend hike; institutional buying.
1812.T	Kajima Corporation	+4.29%	Infrastructure growth.
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport	+4.20%	Q4 beat; dividend increase.
6383.T	Daifuku Co., Ltd.	+4.20%	Logistics automation growth.
USFD	US Foods Holding	+4.18%	Q3 beat; increased institutional ownership.
1347.HK	Hua Hong Semi	+4.16%	Foundry utilization recovery.
3402.T	Toray Industries	+4.14%	Battery separator and insulation dominance.
0753.HK	Air China Limited	+4.12%	Included in "Golden Stock" portfolios.
1308.HK	SITC International	+4.08%	Intra-Asia shipping strength.
3099.T	Isetan Mitsukoshi	+4.07%	Tourism/Weak Yen tailwinds for luxury retail.
8053.T	Sumitomo Corp	+4.03%	Trading house commodity/infra strength.
XPO	XPO, Inc.	+4.02%	AI-driven efficiency upgrades.
ALAB	Astera Labs	+3.99%	Smart Fabric Switch shipments.
2331.HK	Li Ning Company	+3.99%	2025 outlook; analyst target hike.
6752.T	Panasonic Holdings	+3.99%	BESS and EMC filtration market growth.
CAG	Conagra Brands	+3.97%	New frozen breakfast launches.
LKNCY	Luckin Coffee	+3.88%	US market entry; automation-first strategy.
6503.T	Mitsubishi Electric	+3.82%	Power system and automation demand.
BF-B	Brown-Forman	+3.80%	Defensive rotation into staples.
BJ	BJ's Wholesale	+3.79%	Analyst Buy rating; price target hike.
6479.T	MINEBEA MITSUMI	+3.78%	Precision components demand.
SMMT	Summit Therapeutics	+3.77%	Clinical development optimism.
0027.HK	Galaxy Ent	+3.76%	Macau GGR exceeding expectations.
ALNY	Alnylam Pharma	+3.74%	$5.1B revenue target; strong drug uptake.
5631.T	Japan Steel Works	+3.72%	Energy/Defense machinery demand.
TTEK	Tetra Tech, Inc.	+3.69%	Geothermal and "energy as a service" growth.
FSLR	First Solar, Inc.	+3.68%	DOE funding; perovskite tech investment.
NXT	Nextpower Inc.	+3.68%	AI-driven solar tracker enhancements.
SYM	Symbotic Inc.	+3.68%	Massive target hike; revenue beat.
VZ	Verizon Comm	+3.68%	$25B share repurchase; strong Q4.
MTH	Meritage Homes	+3.68%	Institutional buying at 52-week lows.
2238.HK	GAC Group	+3.67%	New energy vehicle (NEV) sales surge.
0001.HK	CK Hutchison	+3.66%	Infrastructure and port stability.
AAON	AAON, Inc.	+3.65%	Revenue beat; insider buying.
CWEN	Clearway Energy	+3.65%	Earnings beat; focus on storage/renewables.
8015.T	Toyota Tsusho	+3.61%	Resource and mobility supply chain strength.
MKC	McCormick & Co	+3.58%	Pricing power in consumer staples.
6160.HK	BeOne Medicines	+3.58%	Biotech licensing momentum.
2269.HK	WuXi Biologics	+3.57%	New licensing deals (Vertex/HanchorBio).
7752.T	Ricoh Company	+3.56%	Acquisition of ET Group for digital services.
BLD	TopBuild Corp	+3.54%	Insulation/Construction services demand.
ACI	Albertsons Cos	+3.50%	Q3 beat; favorable 2025 guidance.
CCK	Crown Holdings	+3.50%	Revenue/Guidance beat.
8031.T	Mitsui & Co.	+3.49%	Autonomous trucking and iron ore investments.
4503.T	Astellas Pharma	+3.49%	Pharma pipeline progress.
6471.T	NSK Ltd.	+3.46%	Focus on high-value electrification products.
QXO	QXO, Inc.	+3.44%	New Buy ratings; institutional entry.
FAST	Fastenal Company	+3.44%	Strong FCF; positive 5-year outlook.
LEN	Lennar Corporation	+3.43%	Revenue beat; "Investment Marketplace" launch.
0019.HK	Swire Pacific	+3.42%	Real estate and aviation recovery.
1072.HK	Dongfang Electric	+3.42%	Nuclear equipment demand tailwinds.
9983.T	Fast Retailing	+3.41%	Global Uniqlo expansion.
2413.T	M3, Inc.	+3.37%	Digital health services recovery.
IP	International Paper	+3.37%	Analyst upgrade; pricing resilience.
8058.T	Mitsubishi Corp	+3.36%	Copper mining and infrastructure focus.
GEV	GE Vernova Inc.	+3.35%	Rare earth mineral stockpiling project.
LHX	L3Harris Tech	+3.33%	$447M propulsion expansion financing.
UAL	United Airlines	+3.27%	Easing oil prices; US manufacturing expansion.
1519.HK	J&T Global	+3.27%	Logistics volume growth.
7269.T	Suzuki Motor	+3.20%	Strong India sales; commercial EV entry.
STZ	Constellation Br	+3.19%	FCF surge; Mexican brewery expansion.
DG	Dollar General	+3.16%	Q4 beat; positive 2026 growth.
6141.T	DMG Mori Co.	+3.15%	Machine tool high-end demand.
7270.T	Subaru Corporation	+3.15%	AWD market differentiation in US.
NVT	nVent Electric	+3.14%	270% growth in data center orders.
TMHC	Taylor Morrison	+3.13%	Initiation of Outperform ratings.
LUV	Southwest Airlines	+3.12%	Fuel cost reduction; (Note: Moat concerns rising).
HUM	Humana Inc.	+3.11%	Revenue growth offsetting CMS updates.
MO	Altria Group	+3.10%	Growth in nicotine alternatives.
5201.T	AGC Inc.	+3.07%	Electrochromic glass business acquisition.
CSCO	Cisco Systems	+3.06%	Earnings/Revenue beat.
9735.T	SECOM CO.	+3.04%	Strategic stake in S-1 Corp.
7202.T	Isuzu Motors	+3.04%	JV for pickup production.
HWM	Howmet Aerospace	+3.03%	Target hikes; debt reduction.
COHR	Coherent Corp.	+3.03%	Optics/Laser demand for data centers.
WING	Wingstop Inc.	+3.02%	Massive EPS beat; unit growth.
2057.HK	ZTO Express	+3.01%	11.1% revenue growth.
0700.HK	Tencent Holdings	-3.01%	Capital diversion fears following energy drink IPO.
DHR	Danaher Corp	-3.05%	Sector-wide life sciences caution.
RBLX	Roblox Corp	-3.08%	Competitive fears from Google’s Project Genie.
PATH	UiPath Inc.	-3.11%	Target price cuts; heavy insider selling.
LRCX	Lam Research	-3.12%	Reversal of chip sector sentiment.
GRAB	Grab Holdings	-3.17%	Margin pressure from growth initiatives.
AVGO	Broadcom Inc.	-3.26%	Profit-taking; concerns over custom ASIC margins.
PSKY	Paramount Skydance	-3.31%	Lost WBD studio asset bid to Netflix.
PFE	Pfizer Inc.	-3.34%	COVID decline; upcoming patent cliffs.
MEDP	Medpace Holdings	-3.34%	Insider selling; underweight ratings.
BLCO	Bausch + Lomb	-3.34%	Sector-wide optical drag.
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	-3.37%	$50B fundraising for AI infrastructure concern.
HIMS	Hims & Hers	-3.40%	Earnings miss; price target cuts.
CHKP	Check Point	-3.41%	Institutional stake decreases.
NFLX	Netflix, Inc.	-3.41%	Apprehension over WBD bid; quality concerns.
ON	ON Semiconductor	-3.41%	Low margins; weakening demand.
CPNG	Coupang, Inc.	-3.44%	Data leak investigation; executive turnover.
6902.T	DENSO Corporation	-3.48%	Downward profit revision; US tariff impact.
GFS	GLOBALFOUNDRIES	-3.53%	Negative perception of upcoming Q4 guidance.
QCOM	QUALCOMM Inc	-3.56%	Downgrade on AI PC chip competition.
ISRG	Intuitive Surgical	-3.59%	High valuation multiple compression.
UBER	Uber Technologies	-3.60%	Autonomous vehicle overhang.
ZBRA	Zebra Technologies	-3.66%	Competitor HarmonyOS launch impact.
9888.HK	Baidu, Inc.	-3.68%	Consumer AI promotional spend pressure.
SAIC	SAIC	-3.85%	Departure of key defense group executive.
KLAC	KLA Corporation	-3.89%	Conservative guidance; sector-wide drag.
LLY	Eli Lilly and Co	-3.90%	Downward revision of obesity market outlook.
CRWD	CrowdStrike	-3.90%	AI disruption fears; insider selling.
HRB	H&R Block, Inc.	-3.93%	Earnings loss; Intuit competition.
ONON	On Holding AG	-3.94%	Growth deceleration fears.
MRVL	Marvell Tech	-3.97%	Souring sentiment in ASIC space.
VLTO	Veralto Corp	-3.97%	Mixed guidance; rating downgrade.
ALGN	Align Technology	-4.02%	Total institutional divestment by major fund.
ILMN	Illumina, Inc.	-4.04%	Overvaluation concerns; stake reductions.
AMKR	Amkor Technology	-4.07%	Insider selling; rating downgrade.
BROS	Dutch Bros Inc.	-4.09%	19% DCF overvaluation analysis.
HPQ	HP Inc.	-4.09%	Hardware demand concerns.
CLBT	Cellebrite DI	-4.16%	Negative sentiment despite SaaS growth.
LULU	lululemon	-4.19%	Uncertainty regarding co-CEO transition.
MU	Micron Technology	-4.19%	Memory cycle timing concerns.
RBRK	Rubrik, Inc.	-4.22%	Massive institutional divestment.
TTWO	Take-Two	-4.35%	Project Genie AI disruption fears.
BFAM	Bright Horizons	-4.37%	Legal claims; hit 52-week lows.
APP	AppLovin Corp	-4.39%	Short-seller accusations of fraud.
TEM	Tempus AI, Inc.	-4.41%	Target price cuts; insider selling.
ZM	Zoom Video	-4.45%	Projected earnings decline.
NXPI	NXP Semi	-4.51%	Soft Q1 guidance; communications rev decline.
CRUS	Cirrus Logic	-4.56%	Analyst downgrade; DCF overvaluation.
MSTR	MicroStrategy Inc	-4.56%	Plunge in Bitcoin value.
CART	Maplebear Inc.	-4.56%	Margin compression fears (Costco partnership).
CHWY	Chewy, Inc.	-4.58%	Stagnant margins; stake trimming.
1024.HK	Kuaishou Tech	-4.61%	Ad revenue slowdown.
KD	Kyndryl Holdings	-4.72%	IT services slowdown.
SE	Sea Limited	-4.75%	E-commerce margin competition.
NCLH	Norwegian Cruise	-4.78%	Consumer spending fears.
TRMB	Trimble Inc.	-4.80%	Software transition drag.
ENTG	Entegris, Inc.	-4.84%	Overvaluation; CFO transition uncertainty.
PTC	PTC Inc.	-4.89%	Cloud transition competition fears.
AKAM	Akamai Tech	-5.01%	Margin pressure; insider selling.
ADP	ADP	-5.04%	Payroll services slowdown.
BAH	Booz Allen	-5.14%	Revenue miss; contract termination (tax leak).
GME	GameStop Corp.	-5.15%	Revenue miss; acquisition uncertainty.
PAYX	Paychex, Inc.	-5.19%	Institutional stake reduction.
PANW	Palo Alto Networks	-5.23%	Pricing pressure from CrowdStrike.
AS	Amer Sports	-5.32%	Soft demand outlook.
DLB	Dolby Laboratories	-5.33%	Restructuring charge; rating downgrade.
CRL	Charles River	-5.54%	Life sciences spending decline.
QLYS	Qualys, Inc.	-5.54%	Cyber-spending re-prioritization.
RVTY	Revvity, Inc.	-5.57%	Cautious 2026 guidance; margin pressure.
PINS	Pinterest, Inc.	-5.59%	Layoff concerns; institutional divestment.
REYN	Reynolds Products	-5.63%	Input cost pressure.
GEN	Gen Digital Inc.	-5.63%	Large-scale stake reduction.
Z	Zillow Group	-5.73%	Falling sales; "Avoid" rating.
FLUT	Flutter Ent	-5.73%	Competitive struggles; target price cuts.
ADSK	Autodesk, Inc.	-5.78%	Negative reaction to 1,000-person layoff.
WMG	Warner Music	-5.83%	95.7% stake divestment by a major investor.
WK	Workiva Inc.	-5.93%	FCF margin decline projection.
LOPE	Grand Canyon Ed	-6.06%	Compensation lawsuits impact.
PCTY	Paylocity Holding	-6.13%	Lowered target by BMO.
GDDY	GoDaddy Inc.	-6.13%	Heavy insider selling; margin concerns.
VEEV	Veeva Systems	-6.17%	Conservative guidance; institutional exit.
ZS	Zscaler, Inc.	-6.26%	Target cuts; insider sales.
ROP	Roper Tech	-6.38%	CEO share sale; negative software sentiment.
CVLT	Commvault Systems	-6.40%	Mixed industry pressure.
IBM	IBM	-6.49%	Post-earnings profit taking.
NSIT	Insight Enterprises	-6.52%	IT channel weakness.
DOCS	Doximity, Inc.	-6.54%	High valuation drag.
NWSA	News Corporation	-6.57%	Rating downgrade; target cuts.
SPSC	SPS Commerce	-6.59%	Revenue miss; target reduction.
OKTA	Okta, Inc.	-6.60%	Massive phishing campaign impact.
RDDT	Reddit, Inc.	-6.63%	Post-2025 run correction.
NET	Cloudflare, Inc.	-6.64%	Revenue guidance below consensus.
IOT	Samsara Inc.	-6.66%	High growth multiple compression.
PAYC	Paycom Software	-6.74%	Margin compression; soft sales guidance.
WIX	Wix.com Ltd.	-6.80%	Base44 acquisition concerns.
SPOT	Spotify Tech	-6.80%	CEO departure; weak guidance.
CRM	Salesforce, Inc.	-6.85%	Growth miss; shift to usage-based pricing.
MSCI	MSCI Inc.	-6.93%	Index methodology/regional drag concerns.
WAY	Waystar Holding	-6.95%	Significant insider selling by CTO.
NOW	ServiceNow, Inc.	-6.97%	Reduced fair value; multiple compression.
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	-7.03%	Mortgage rate/profitability concerns.
WDAY	Workday, Inc.	-7.04%	Enterprise spending slowdown.
GTLB	GitLab Inc.	-7.10%	Institutional sell-off; analyst downgrade.
MDB	MongoDB, Inc.	-7.14%	Direct sales customer decline; AI competition.
CDNS	Cadence Design	-7.15%	Downgrade to Sell; overvaluation.
BSY	Bentley Systems	-7.16%	Major target reduction.
CRDO	Credo Technology	-7.21%	Networking spend volatility.
GLBE	Global-E Online	-7.25%	Large stake sale by ARKF.
DDOG	Datadog, Inc.	-7.28%	Software macro headwinds.
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	-7.31%	Usage-based pricing shift; product shelving.
TEAM	Atlassian Corp	-7.65%	Valuation/Growth mismatch.
RHI	Robert Half Inc.	-8.02%	Negative ratings; labor market complexity.
NTNX	Nutanix, Inc.	-8.08%	Significant target reduction; weak EPS.
ESTC	Elastic N.V.	-8.34%	Sales growth deceleration.
MTCH	Match Group	-8.37%	EBITDA miss; "swipe fatigue" in metrics.
SNAP	Snap Inc.	-8.41%	KPI growth failed to offset market apathy.
SNPS	Synopsys, Inc.	-8.46%	Guidance below predictions; insider selling.
FICO	Fair Isaac Corp	-8.47%	Regulatory risk; momentum cooling.
PEGA	Pegasystems Inc.	-8.47%	Significant insider selling by Chairman.
TYL	Tyler Tech	-8.50%	Negative reaction to $258M acquisition.
DOX	Amdocs Limited	-8.63%	Missed EPS; organic growth decrease.
TTD	The Trade Desk	-8.64%	Growth lagging competitors; target cuts.
S	SentinelOne	-8.69%	Institutional reduction; Sell rating.
TWLO	Twilio Inc.	-8.75%	Competitive pressure from AI startups.
DUOL	Duolingo, Inc.	-8.83%	Below-consensus subscriber guidance.
MCO	Moody's Corp	-8.90%	Market share loss in Canada.
TENB	Tenable Holdings	-8.95%	Negative revisions; cautious FCF.
MORN	Morningstar	-9.03%	$365M acquisition; "ratings shopping" fears.
ACIW	ACI Worldwide	-9.04%	Institutional divestment; insider selling.
DT	Dynatrace, Inc.	-9.15%	Significant insider/institutional sales.
SNOW	Snowflake Inc.	-9.15%	$200M OpenAI commitment; cautious outlook.
VRNS	Varonis Systems	-9.30%	Revenue miss; cautious forward guidance.
TDG	TransDigm Group	-9.31%	GAAP earnings miss; lowered income guidance.
TTAN	ServiceTitan	-9.32%	Lowered target; negative insider sentiment.
BKNG	Booking Holdings	-9.32%	Consumer travel spending concerns.
ACN	Accenture plc	-9.59%	Consulting revenue deceleration (Gartner drag).
MNDY	monday.com Ltd.	-9.85%	Significant reduction in target prices.
MANH	Manhattan Assoc	-9.99%	Supply chain software slowdown.
7272.T	Yamaha Motor	-10.00%	Profit forecast cut (tariffs/taxes).
VRSK	Verisk Analytics	-10.11%	Stake decrease; target reduction.
CTSH	Cognizant Tech	-10.14%	Heavy insider/institutional selling.
PNR	Pentair plc	-10.16%	CFO departure; revenue miss.
U	Unity Software	-10.20%	Disruption fears from Google prompt-to-world AI.
FN	Fabrinet	-10.22%	Heavy insider selling; valuation fatigue.
TOST	Toast, Inc.	-10.37%	EPS miss; revenue growth deceleration.
FDS	FactSet Research	-10.51%	Bearish sentiment; Underweight rating.
HUBS	HubSpot, Inc.	-10.55%	AI competitor pressure; target cuts.
FRSH	Freshworks Inc.	-10.60%	Customer acquisition slowdown.
KVYO	Klaviyo, Inc.	-10.68%	Massive insider share sales.
INTU	Intuit Inc.	-10.89%	Significant insider selling; software drag.
BILL	BILL Holdings	-10.98%	Activist pressure; sector sell-off.
OMC	Omnicom Group	-11.15%	Loss of major media planning accounts.
MLI	Mueller Ind	-11.16%	Earnings miss; copper hedge losses.
SPGI	S&P Global Inc.	-11.27%	Input cost inflation; mixed PMI data.
DOCU	DocuSign, Inc.	-11.40%	Analyst downgrades; insider selling.
G	Genpact Limited	-11.69%	Consulting/Processing headwinds.
IQV	IQVIA Holdings	-11.88%	39.9% institutional stake reduction.
EFX	Equifax Inc.	-12.11%	Missed EPS guidance.
MMYT	MakeMyTrip Ltd	-12.27%	Institutional stake reduction.
TRU	TransUnion	-12.47%	Negative reaction to fraud acquisition.
EPAM	EPAM Systems	-12.87%	Rating downgrade; insider selling.
RMBS	Rambus Inc.	-13.42%	Q1 supply chain/delayed revenue issues.
BRBR	BellRing Brands	-14.39%	Class-action lawsuits regarding sales reporting.
VERX	Vertex, Inc.	-15.13%	17% downside price target revision.
EXPE	Expedia Group	-15.26%	Competitive travel margin pressure.
CSGP	CoStar Group	-15.45%	Stagnant cash flow; rating downgrade.
GPK	Graphic Packaging	-15.97%	Earnings miss; lowered 2026 guidance.
EXLS	ExlService	-18.68%	Gartner-triggered consulting sector slowdown.
IT	Gartner, Inc.	-20.87%	Significant net income and FCF decline.
CRVL	CorVel Corp	-26.05%	Revenue significantly below market expectations.

Interesting Comments, Facts, and Ideas

The SaaS Structural Dilemma

A clear delineation is emerging between "Castles" and "Cottages" within the SaaS sector. Large-cap incumbents like Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE) are drastically shifting their business models to usage-based pricing. While this aligns revenue with AI-driven value, it signals a retreat from the predictability of seat-based subscriptions, which was the foundation of SaaS valuations for the past decade.

Conversely, Palantir (PLTR) is emerging as an outlier, demonstrating 70% year-over-year commercial revenue growth. This suggests its AI implementation is actually yielding significant ROI, a promise that many other companies are still struggling to deliver.

Infrastructure: The Real AI Winner

While chipmakers often grab headlines, the "toll roads" of the AI revolution are quietly outperforming. Western Digital (WDC)'s $4 billion share repurchase authorization and nVent (NVT)'s 270% surge in data center orders highlight the critical and growing demand for storage and cooling solutions.

Bloom Energy (BE) and Weichai Power (2338.HK) are becoming unexpected beneficiaries of the energy crisis facing data centers, with Bloom Energy securing massive power deals in Texas to support the expanding digital infrastructure.

Contrarian Value & Tactical Plays

Pfizer (PFE): Despite a 3.3% drop, reputable bulls view Pfizer as a floor-valuation play at $26 (15.4x P/E). The company is strategically pivoting toward oncology and weight loss to offset upcoming patent cliffs.
Constellation Software (CSU): The 22% dip following the CEO's departure is being pitched as a generational entry point for this "legendary serial acquirer," currently trading well below historical cash flow multiples.
SpaceX & xAI Merger: The rumored $1.25 trillion valuation for the combined entity is reshaping the aerospace and AI landscape, providing massive momentum for Rocket Lab (RKLB) and other players in the satellite-to-cellular space.
The "Productivity Trap": A macro risk currently being debated is whether AI-driven efficiency could lead to wage stagnation and a deflationary economic stall. This "fat-tail" risk could potentially decouple the S&P 500 from the "real" economy.

The India-US-Russia Triangle

Donald Trump’s reported deal to cut Indian tariffs in exchange for ending Russian oil purchases represents a massive geopolitical pivot. This potential shift could trigger a major rotation into Indian industrial and tech stocks while putting further downward pressure on global crude prices, which would be bullish for airlines like United (UAL) and Alaska (ALK).

Happy Alpha Hunt! - Distilla

Disclaimer: This content is generated using AI, synthesizing public data (filings, reports, news) and social media (Reddit, X). It may contain errors, inaccuracies, or hallucinations. Nothing herein constitutes financial advice. This newsletter is for informational purposes only; please consult a qualified professional and conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

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